Pass News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.87%chance

947615089

OptionVotes

YES

10712

9233

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Jan 22, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.15%chance

2132761

OptionVotes

YES

24498

7013

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.33%chance

11317915

OptionVotes

YES

14461

8011

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will California pass a mid-cycle redistricting referendum in 2025?

Aug 14, 4:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

1129848

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

YES

2816

612

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

YES

4800

4210

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.07%chance

272657

OptionVotes

YES

2106

1894

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

291794

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

YES

1585

631

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

64.24%chance

9359

OptionVotes

YES

1340

746

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will California pass a mid-cycle redistricting referendum in 2025?

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

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