Pass News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.69%chance

998752698

OptionVotes

YES

12331

8038

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

26100715

OptionProbability

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

100

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

2.79%chance

9658132

OptionVotes

YES

26360

741

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.87%chance

12420076

OptionVotes

YES

14305

8109

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.19%chance

5010868

OptionVotes

YES

14635

3225

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.59%chance

417176

OptionVotes

YES

5009

891

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

106544

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

YES

1575

790

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

If it passes, when will Pittsburgh's paid parental leave ordinance take effect?

Oct 23, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Apr 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2030

Pass News

Prediction markets for Pass

Prediction markets for Pass

Prediction markets for Pass

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

If it passes, when will Pittsburgh's paid parental leave ordinance take effect?

Latest stories