Pass News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

995746565

OptionVotes

YES

10534

9400

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

443280648

OptionVotes

YES

1217

409

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.18%chance

9340009

OptionVotes

YES

10258

1941

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

1224112

OptionProbability

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.58%chance

12319399

OptionVotes

YES

14979

7700

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

13135

3475

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

YES

1575

790

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

394069

OptionVotes

YES

2122

1848

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Pass News

Prediction markets for Pass

Prediction markets for Pass

Prediction markets for Pass

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

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