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Prediction markets for Passage

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

Apr 10, 4:02 AMApr 10, 4:02 AM

3.83%chance

2313229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5096

204

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Will Iran be renamed Persia by mid 2029?

Jan 9, 7:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6.88%chance

173346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3680

272

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.89%chance

162100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

84

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

101

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.84%chance

5540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

920

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

880

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.03%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

81

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

06

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

121

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