Passage News

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

13135

3475

Will Iran be renamed Persia by mid 2029?

Jan 9, 7:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6.88%chance

173346

OptionVotes

YES

3680

272

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

173004

OptionVotes

YES

1921

520

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.01%chance

172157

OptionVotes

YES

1005

134

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

81.64%chance

7986

OptionVotes

YES

1483

858

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

1104

880

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

May 4, 8:39 PMOct 8, 8:24 PM

4289

OptionProbability

Official statement from Kuang or her publisher defending the passage.

None of the above.

Official apology from Kuang or her publisher.

Final published paper version does not include the passage.

Published electronic versions do not include the passage as of 1 month after release.

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

YES

1087

929

Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 2030?

Sep 19, 5:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.25%chance

4237

OptionVotes

YES

1067

937

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.03%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

158

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

1069

935

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

OptionVotes

YES

129

121

Passage News

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Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Will Iran be renamed Persia by mid 2029?

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 2030?

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

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