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Prediction markets for Passage

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

Apr 10, 4:02 AMApr 10, 4:02 AM

31.67%chance

206285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

693

Will Iran be renamed Persia by mid 2029?

Jan 9, 7:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.14%chance

152818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3152

317

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.89%chance

162100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

84

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

742

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.91%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

880

Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Apr 7, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.2%chance

15282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

929

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.03%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

81

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

06

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

121

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