Passage News

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

8923

4537

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

42768

OptionVotes

YES

1404

712

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.89%chance

162100

OptionVotes

YES

1017

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.2%chance

101587

OptionVotes

YES

1328

753

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

1334

101

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

43.62%chance

6590

OptionVotes

YES

1137

880

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Jul 14, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.58%chance

17337

OptionVotes

YES

1104

880

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.03%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

158

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

Jun 4, 4:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

8198

OptionVotes

YES

291

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

May 4, 8:39 PMOct 8, 8:24 PM

3175

OptionProbability

Official statement from Kuang or her publisher defending the passage.

None of the above.

Official apology from Kuang or her publisher.

Final published paper version does not include the passage.

Published electronic versions do not include the passage as of 1 month after release.

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

964

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

OptionVotes

YES

129

121

Passage News

Prediction markets for Passage

Prediction markets for Passage

Prediction markets for Passage

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Clarity Act will pass in September

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

When humans have all died off, will there be anyone there to mourn us?

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

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