Passport News

USA Gold Visa program Multimarket - USA citizenship and passport marketification!

Feb 26, 7:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1132342

OptionProbability

Something like "Gold Card" or "Gold Visa" actually happens and people can apply by mid 2026

There will be someone whose entire process takes less than 6 months, who has received the visa, by mid 2027

At least one person actually gets a legal USA visa as a result of using this Gold Visa program by mid 2026

At least 100 people have used it by mid 2026

At least 1000 people have used it by mid 2028

The EB-5 program will still be taking new applicants as of mid 2026, using the old investment+other requirements system

At least 100 people have used it by mid 2026

The all-in price for the normal process will be 4m USD or more for the first say 10 applicants.

At least 1000 people have used it by mid 2028

Something like "Gold Card" or "Gold Visa" actually happens and people can apply by mid 2026

At least one person actually gets a legal USA visa as a result of using this Gold Visa program by mid 2026

There will be someone whose entire process takes less than 6 months, who has received the visa, by mid 2027

The EB-5 program will still be taking new applicants as of mid 2026, using the old investment+other requirements system

It is not or is no longer existing or being developed, as of mid 2027

The first person to use the program will have paid 6m USD or more for it

The all-in price for the normal process will be 4m USD or more for the first say 10 applicants.

It is not or is no longer existing or being developed, as of mid 2027

The first person to use the program will have paid 6m USD or more for it

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Jan 21, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.62%chance

204917

OptionVotes

YES

2162

462

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Feb 5, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.54%chance

184803

OptionVotes

YES

4161

240

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Feb 9, 9:35 AMMar 4, 2:59 AM

93355

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

29.77%chance

363321

OptionVotes

YES

1536

651

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

Jan 25, 11:35 PMFeb 16, 5:59 AM

37.3%chance

28989

OptionVotes

YES

165

137

Will physical passports still be needed to travel between most countries in 2035?

Sep 6, 9:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

66.43%chance

12949

OptionVotes

YES

141

Will 70% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?

Feb 26, 10:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.76%chance

10797

OptionVotes

YES

747

Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2026?

Feb 26, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.09%chance

7617

OptionVotes

YES

684

Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050?

Oct 21, 10:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.15%chance

12470

OptionVotes

YES

1317

732

Will Brazil revoke the new eVisa requirement for US citizens, cancel the border for USA passport holders in 2026?

Dec 20, 8:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

20.54%chance

6166

OptionVotes

YES

197

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Mar 26, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

136

Passport News

Prediction markets for Passport

Prediction markets for Passport

Prediction markets for Passport

USA Gold Visa program Multimarket - USA citizenship and passport marketification!

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

Will physical passports still be needed to travel between most countries in 2035?

Will 70% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?

Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2026?

Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050?

Will Brazil revoke the new eVisa requirement for US citizens, cancel the border for USA passport holders in 2026?

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Latest stories