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Prediction markets for Past Lives

Will Levy Rozman get Grandmaster Title in his life?

Feb 17, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.97%chance

335255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

754

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

May 8, 3:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

445067

OptionProbability

Gukesh D

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Praggnanandhaa R

Anish Giri

Wei Yi

Other

Magnus Carlsen

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Alireza Firouzja

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

41

16

13

10

8

6

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

At what age will Richard Hanania die?

May 9, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.83%chance

184881

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1025

972

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Rick Moranis appear in Spaceballs 2?

Jun 14, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

85.16%chance

162563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2395

417

Will all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?

Jan 9, 8:31 PMJun 21, 3:59 AM

67.26%chance

101314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1433

698

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

67.23%chance

191272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

698

By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com

Jan 13, 9:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.75%chance

91122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2082

480

Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?

Jul 23, 10:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.05%chance

141012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

910

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

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