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Prediction markets for Past Lives

By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5225961

OptionProbability

13

12

11

10

4 (all flight #s are on or before)

5

6

7

8

9

74

59

19

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Levy Rozman get Grandmaster Title in his life?

Feb 17, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.97%chance

335255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

754

At what age will Richard Hanania die?

May 9, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.83%chance

184881

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1025

972

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

May 8, 3:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

263095

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Praggnanandhaa R

Hikaru Nakamura

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Alireza Firouzja

Magnus Carlsen

Gukesh D

Wei Yi

Other

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Anish Giri

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

21

14

12

7

7

7

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Rick Moranis appear in Spaceballs 2?

Jun 14, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

83.85%chance

121940

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2278

439

Will all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?

Jan 9, 8:31 PMJun 21, 3:59 AM

68.73%chance

101265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

674

Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?

Jul 23, 10:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.94%chance

13862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

924

By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com

Jan 13, 9:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.83%chance

7322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Lee Man Hee says he will live forever. How old will he be when he dies?

Jul 15, 8:57 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

19.12%chance

8116

OptionProbability

YES

NO

151

136

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