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Prediction markets for Pause Letters

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

376139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will Veritasium make a youtube video about AI Alignment or Existential Risks in 2025?

Mar 2, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.01%chance

23664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

135

In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Mar 30, 2:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12583

OptionProbability

Helped with >60% confidence

Uncertain

Helped with >80% confidence

Harmed with >80% confidence

Harmed with >60% confidence

60

20

7

7

6

If he comes to power, will Donald Trump Make America Great Again?

Aug 7, 11:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.76%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

138

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will I be a regular smoker by the end of my PhD?

Apr 18, 12:49 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

23.39%chance

6170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

88

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