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Prediction markets for Pay

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.6%chance

28958716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20103

2770

Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package

Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

6629320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

Will @evan be late to pay back a loan?

Apr 20, 7:21 PMApr 27, 3:59 AM

19.01%chance

286831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2036

519

Will Tontine ever pay out?

Mar 25, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.65%chance

241735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

937

If I pay for a ChatGPT pro subscription, will it make me at least its cost back in value?

Jun 19, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

66.33%chance

5960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

712

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?

Mar 8, 2:14 AMMar 14, 7:59 AM

6.69%chance

11707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

120

I will pay everyone who trades on this market 10 mana

Aug 25, 4:02 AMJul 21, 5:59 AM

69.96%chance

81630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

959

Will you be able to pay to recreationally fly around in the gases of Jupiter before 2100?

Sep 7, 11:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

17428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

Will a Fifth European country make it legal to pay blood plasma donors before EOY 2027?

Dec 8, 1:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.99%chance

15419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

945

Will OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?

Apr 7, 5:16 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

28.4%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

951

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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