Pay Later News

Kokotajlo v.s. Wyeth: METR task length 8+ hours in March 2027?

Aug 16, 7:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

439371

OptionProbability

Kokotajlo wins: longer than 8 hours

Wyeth wins: shorter than 8 hours

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

Apr 16, 3:45 PMJun 9, 3:36 PM

117419

OptionProbability

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by more than a year

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by one year or less

Tumbles is not late to pay back a loan

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

121672

OptionVotes

YES

1011

970

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

1035

963

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

1026

977

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Aug 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.55%chance

111049

OptionVotes

YES

425

112

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.57%chance

10851

OptionVotes

YES

1236

809

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

3244

OptionProbability

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to discuss MTG card prices before Jan 1, 2027

Jerome Powell as guest before 2027

100

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Dec 10, 12:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3118

OptionProbability

0 - 9%

10 - 19%

20 - 29%

30 - 39%

40 - 49%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

80 - 89%

90 - 100%

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

Pay Later News

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Kokotajlo v.s. Wyeth: METR task length 8+ hours in March 2027?

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Odd Lots Predictions

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

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