Pay Later News

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

337767

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2030 or later

2029

2026

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

495255

OptionVotes

YES

189

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

1211

857

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.39%chance

141582

OptionVotes

YES

1092

916

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.65%chance

241455

OptionVotes

YES

1185

903

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

181206

OptionVotes

YES

1021

981

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4304

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

4249

OptionProbability

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to discuss MTG card prices before Jan 1, 2027

Jerome Powell as guest before 2027

100

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Dec 10, 12:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3118

OptionProbability

0 - 9%

10 - 19%

20 - 29%

30 - 39%

40 - 49%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

80 - 89%

90 - 100%

Will Corgi go bankrupt?

Jul 28, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.58%chance

549

OptionVotes

YES

132

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

Pay Later News

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Odd Lots Predictions

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Will Corgi go bankrupt?

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

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