Pay Later News

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

YES

15809

7952

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

10.76%chance

293558

OptionVotes

YES

288

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

1211

857

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

1035

963

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

1026

977

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

1321

757

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Aug 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.27%chance

121050

OptionVotes

YES

418

113

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

3244

OptionProbability

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to discuss MTG card prices before Jan 1, 2027

Jerome Powell as guest before 2027

100

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Dec 10, 12:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3118

OptionProbability

0 - 9%

10 - 19%

20 - 29%

30 - 39%

40 - 49%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

80 - 89%

90 - 100%

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

Dec 12, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.19%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

Pay Later News

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Odd Lots Predictions

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Will Apple have a program that shuts out access based on non-payment on Apple financial services before 2030?

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