Pay Later News

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

Apr 16, 3:45 PMJun 9, 3:36 PM

117419

OptionProbability

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by more than a year

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by one year or less

Tumbles is not late to pay back a loan

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

265001

OptionProbability

2027

2030 or later

2026

2028

2029

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

1211

857

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

1035

963

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.87%chance

131091

OptionVotes

YES

1024

978

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

1321

757

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

Aug 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.99%chance

121051

OptionVotes

YES

412

114

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

Sep 24, 4:43 PMDec 31, 4:38 PM

9662

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

Odd Lots Predictions

Jun 27, 12:17 PMJan 2, 1:03 PM

3244

OptionProbability

Podcast guest to talk about Buy Now Pay Later in 2025

Joe believes in the term premium before 1 July 2032

NYC adopts single-stair building code before 2-Jan-2033

Podcast guest to discuss livestock gender selection tech before 28 June 2029

Podcast guest to discuss MTG card prices before Jan 1, 2027

Jerome Powell as guest before 2027

100

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

Dec 10, 12:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3118

OptionProbability

0 - 9%

10 - 19%

20 - 29%

30 - 39%

40 - 49%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

70 - 79%

80 - 89%

90 - 100%

Pay Later News

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Prediction markets for Pay Later

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Odd Lots Predictions

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

What share of Russia’s frozen central bank reserves will have been used to support Ukraine?

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