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Prediction markets for Pay to Reach

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14077

6665

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will there be a signifikant growth of greenlands population after Trump offers money to each inhabitant?

Jan 9, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.26%chance

7846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

551

Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

37%chance

21814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

67

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

20685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

Jun 11, 6:10 PMDec 31, 5:58 PM

9202

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $50,000,000

Above $100,000,000

Above $250,000,000

Above $500,000,000

60

59

54

45

33

10

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Oct 16, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

17

17

17

17

17

17

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