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Prediction markets for Pay with Crypto

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255760

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

32

28

14

12

7

4

2

1

Meta (Facebook) launches real money prediction market app by end of 2027?

Jun 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.43%chance

151881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

861

Will I begin using cryptocurrency transactions in my daily life before 2030?

Dec 11, 2:46 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

30441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

985

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will crypto be a common way to pay by 2030?

Oct 11, 1:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.24%chance

10133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

177

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