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Prediction markets for Payments

Will Taylor Swift get married before Twitter launches a Peer to Peer payment system?

Jan 18, 5:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.86%chance

394509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2245

610

Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2030?

Jan 30, 9:03 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85%chance

92825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

164

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Dec 10, 1:00 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.52%chance

292468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

915

Will X (formerly Twitter) implement some form of payments system before 2028?

Aug 14, 12:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.7%chance

101783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2353

425

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?

Oct 31, 1:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19%chance

19565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Will the average US Medicare payments rate increase in 2027 be <0.2%

Jan 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

3510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

718

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Aug 16, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

4133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Which of these companies will partially accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment at the end of 2030?

Feb 2, 3:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5123

OptionProbability

Twitch

Twitter

Starbucks

McDonalds

AT&T

Chegg

60

56

48

46

34

34

Will the Chinese government default on any debt payments before 2028?

May 6, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.64%chance

686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

94

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