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Prediction markets for Payments

Will X/Twitter Payments (peer to peer) be launched before (month)? Unlinked market

Aug 20, 9:25 PMApr 1, 4:16 PM

7030909

OptionProbability

June 2026

May 2026

April 2026

September 2024

October 2024

November 2024

December 2024

January 2025

February 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

June 2025

July 2025

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

88

57

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Taylor Swift get married before Twitter launches a Peer to Peer payment system?

Jan 18, 5:24 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.86%chance

394509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2245

610

Will X (formerly Twitter) implement some form of payments system before 2028?

Aug 14, 12:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

95.49%chance

134033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4603

217

Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2030?

Jan 30, 9:03 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85%chance

92825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

164

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Dec 10, 1:00 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.52%chance

292468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

915

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?

Oct 31, 1:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19%chance

19565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Will the average US Medicare payments rate increase in 2027 be <0.2%

Jan 27, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.57%chance

3560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Aug 16, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

4133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will the Chinese government default on any debt payments before 2028?

May 6, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.64%chance

686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

94

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