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Prediction markets for PE

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.8%chance

4301342179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503441

19890

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

123741585

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

60

22

14

1

1

1

0

0

0

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

593573884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3288

1364

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.46%chance

283283146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6817

3928

Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?

Feb 6, 10:41 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44.37%chance

8313657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

279

How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?

Dec 26, 4:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95453

OptionProbability

40-50

50-75

75+

less than 40

82

9

8

2

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $1 Trillion by 2030

Oct 6, 3:05 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

4.74%chance

7677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

818

99

Will Goldman Sachs fire its banking analysts that took PE jobs?

Jan 13, 1:20 PMDec 25, 1:14 PM

33.54%chance

6434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

711

Which PE secondaries intermediary will place #1 on the Secondaries Investor annual volume survey in 2027?

Oct 6, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4410

OptionProbability

Evercore

Jefferies

Other

Campbell Lutyens

William Blair

Park Hill

63

19

10

3

3

2

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $500B by 2030

Oct 5, 5:06 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

31.36%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

146

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Oct 6, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

334

OptionProbability

Other

Ardian

Apollo

Blackstone

Lexington

56

33

6

3

2

Prime editor engineered virus-like particles (PE-eVLPs) to get human cells to generate ANY plasma protein exists by 2028

Jul 29, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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