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Prediction markets for PE

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

538240004

OptionProbability

Robert Prevost / Pope Leo XIV

[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Benjamin Netanyahu

Zohran Mamdani

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Vladimir Putin

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

AOC

33

22

22

7

5

3

2

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69101750

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

64

20

14

1

1

1

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?

Dec 26, 4:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81025

OptionProbability

less than 40

40-50

75+

50-75

41

29

19

11

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $1 Trillion by 2030

Oct 6, 3:05 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

4.74%chance

7677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

818

99

Which PE secondaries intermediary will place #1 on the Secondaries Investor annual volume survey in 2027?

Oct 6, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4410

OptionProbability

Evercore

Jefferies

Other

Campbell Lutyens

William Blair

Park Hill

63

19

10

3

3

2

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $500B by 2030

Oct 5, 5:06 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

31.36%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

146

Will annual transaction volume in GP-led PE secondaries be greater than LP-led in FY 2025?

Oct 5, 5:18 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

65%chance

5125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

144

Will the Investment Corporation of Dubai hold the largest PE allocation by 2025?

Dec 9, 8:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.99%chance

967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

187

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Oct 6, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

334

OptionProbability

Other

Ardian

Apollo

Blackstone

Lexington

56

33

6

3

2

Prime editor engineered virus-like particles (PE-eVLPs) to get human cells to generate ANY plasma protein exists by 2028

Jul 29, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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