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Prediction markets for PE

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18795

6906

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

How high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?

Dec 26, 4:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

116868

OptionProbability

40-50

50-75

75+

less than 40

80

14

5

1

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

Will Goldman Sachs fire its banking analysts that took PE jobs?

Jan 13, 1:20 PMDec 25, 1:14 PM

12.5%chance

81673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2647

378

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $1 Trillion by 2030

Oct 6, 3:05 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

4.74%chance

7677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

818

99

Which PE secondaries intermediary will place #1 on the Secondaries Investor annual volume survey in 2027?

Oct 6, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4410

OptionProbability

Evercore

Jefferies

Other

Campbell Lutyens

William Blair

Park Hill

63

19

10

3

3

2

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $500B by 2030

Oct 5, 5:06 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

31.36%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

146

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

Oct 6, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

334

OptionProbability

Other

Ardian

Apollo

Blackstone

Lexington

56

33

6

3

2

Prime editor engineered virus-like particles (PE-eVLPs) to get human cells to generate ANY plasma protein exists by 2028

Jul 29, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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