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Prediction markets for Peace Prize

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Jan 9, 1:47 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

7.36%chance

163173966

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

1218

Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)

Aug 16, 3:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

73%chance

24181988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1644

608

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.01%chance

8048793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5294

645

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Jan 30, 11:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

2220597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Oct 11, 8:31 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

7615342

OptionProbability

Other

Yulia Navalnaya

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Donald Trump

UNRWA

NATO

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Greta Thunberg

Antonio Guterres

Noam Chomsky

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Vladimir Putin

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

The International Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

International Criminal Court

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Narges Mohammadi

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Petro Porošenko

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Kim Jong Un

28

19

15

7

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Jan 29, 6:49 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4%chance

3814016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Sep 17, 6:27 PMMar 24, 3:59 AM

3.5%chance

302528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

902

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100?

May 7, 8:19 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

7.62%chance

332217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

966

Will Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?

Oct 30, 5:33 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM

15.68%chance

201742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

959

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8139

OptionProbability

Alignment research

Delaying superintelligence

Accelerating AI progress

60

45

17

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