Peacekeeper News

Israel

Hamas

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Other

PLA

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

YES

China launches military drills around Taiwan

Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

Reports that China is building new concentration camps

A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

Significant constitutional crisis in the US

Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

The US bombs Iran

Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

A human walks on the Moon

At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

The US reduces sanctions on Russia

Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

The US attempts to expand its territory by force

Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

Elon Musk is pardoned

China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

Attempted coup in Taiwan

the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

The US withdraws from NATO

Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

India detonates a nuclear weapon

Russia cedes territory to China

Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

A major pandemic occurs

Attempted coup in Russia

Attempted coup in the Phillipines

The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

The US detonates a nuclear weapon

The US attacks a NATO member

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

A nuclear weapon is detonated

Attempted coup in China

Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

Successful revolution in Iran

Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

Attempted coup in the US

Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

China detonates a nuclear weapon

Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

YES

YES

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

Hamas

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

PLO

United States of America

Other

African-Only Peacekeeping Force

Wilful killing

Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

Taking of hostages.

Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

Declaring that no quarter will be given;

Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES