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Prediction markets for People

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.25%chance

11456464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9350

3477

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Delayed Social Security payments to at least 100,000 people before December 31, 2025

Feb 1, 9:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.91%chance

12423197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13029

7951

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?

Jun 2, 8:04 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1423011

OptionProbability

>= 100

>= 200

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

95

93

89

79

60

27

12

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?

May 31, 4:36 AMJul 2, 5:59 AM

1022890

OptionProbability

>= 300

>= 500

>= 800

>= 1300

>= 2100

>= 3400

>= 5500

>= 8900

75

63

51

39

21

11

8

4

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

44%chance

568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

854

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

215927

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

>1000M but not all of humanity

0.1M-10M

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

41

14

13

12

11

9

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.68%chance

225271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12078

8128

Will most people be dating robot cat girls in 15 years?

Apr 7, 7:37 PMApr 7, 11:59 PM

2%chance

324001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.56%chance

142752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10667

9057

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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