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Prediction markets for Perfect

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

16.49%chance

22091568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22645

4161

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

725

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

446

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.7%chance

335082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3565

1720

Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing)

Jan 26, 5:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.03%chance

512807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

877

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

391862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

658

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035?

Apr 1, 2:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.77%chance

141387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1770

666

Will there be another perfect game pitched in the MLB before Windows 12 releases?

Dec 29, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.77%chance

18708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

673

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.64%chance

16674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

959

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

852

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 12:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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