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Prediction markets for Perfect

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.25%chance

10032064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

283

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

725

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.4%chance

5715081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5933

274

This market will resolve YES once there is a combined perfect game in MLB.

Sep 14, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

99%chance

914709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.96%chance

335582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4065

1672

Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing)

Jan 26, 5:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.03%chance

512807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

877

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

391862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

658

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035?

Apr 1, 2:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.84%chance

151392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

665

Will there be another perfect game pitched in the MLB before Windows 12 releases?

Dec 29, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.77%chance

18708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

673

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.64%chance

16674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

959

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

852

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 12:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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