Perfect News

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.87%chance

10835737

OptionVotes

YES

3423

409

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

YES

1221

725

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.4%chance

5715081

OptionVotes

YES

5933

274

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.38%chance

335782

OptionVotes

YES

4265

1655

Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing)

Jan 26, 5:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.03%chance

512807

OptionVotes

YES

1362

877

Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?

Aug 6, 8:11 PMJan 1, 9:01 PM

62258

OptionProbability

Niftski

LeKukie

averge11

An old-timer coming out of retirement (let's say just Kosmic, darbian, Saradoc, Somewes, or AndrewG)

Anyone else (critically, including Miniland, Tree_05, etc.)

One of the upstarts (let's say just KingOfJonnyBoy, MW_65536, Aryll, JeremyMKW, or ScratchySpeedrunner)

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035?

Apr 1, 2:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.84%chance

151392

OptionVotes

YES

1774

665

Will there be another perfect game pitched in the MLB before Windows 12 releases?

Dec 29, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.77%chance

18708

OptionVotes

YES

1364

673

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.64%chance

16674

OptionVotes

YES

1123

959

Are there infinitely many perfect numbers?

Feb 7, 5:38 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

88.68%chance

11392

OptionVotes

YES

1233

941

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

YES

1026

852

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 12:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

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Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Does a perfect God exist? (All good, all powerful, all knowing)

Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035?

Will there be another perfect game pitched in the MLB before Windows 12 releases?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Are there infinitely many perfect numbers?

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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