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Prediction markets for Performance Award

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.76%chance

249794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2229

449

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

484858

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

30

23

16

16

8

6

1

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

75%chance

41305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will Ousmane Dembele win the Ballon D'Or ?

Jul 15, 2:27 PMSep 22, 2:26 PM

79.95%chance

91005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1997

501

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

What medal will I get at the 2025 International Olympiad in Astronomy & Astrophysics (IOAA)?

May 12, 9:31 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

10862

OptionProbability

Gold

Silver

Bronze

No Medal

56

27

10

7

If shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, will the courts strike it down again (by the end of 2025)?

Apr 22, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

8825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

108

Will I get into a "top" university for CS in US?

May 19, 5:30 AMMay 2, 5:12 AM

7277

OptionProbability

Yes

No

73

27

2025 PGA Player of the Year

Jul 1, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2185

OptionProbability

Scottie Scheffler

Rory McIlroy

Other

Xander Schauffele

Ludvig Åberg

Justin Thomas

70

8

8

6

5

4

Which type of player will be player of the series in the 2025-26 Ashes Series?

May 30, 12:31 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

4148

OptionProbability

Batsman

Bowler

All-Rounder

Wicket-Keeper

Other

39

32

18

7

4

Will the F-47 have canards?

Apr 21, 4:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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