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Prediction markets for Performance Max

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

17.86%chance

11319267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

466

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

My manifold net worth in one year?

Aug 1, 8:35 PMAug 1, 8:25 PM

15725

OptionProbability

Above 1000

Above 2000

Above 4000

Above 8000

95

92

83

82

Will I get into a "top" university for CS in US?

May 19, 5:30 AMMay 2, 5:12 AM

11652

OptionProbability

Yes

No

82

18

Bitcoin proves robust longterm investment by 2040?

Sep 29, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.66%chance

4143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

46

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.87%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

925

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