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Perpetrator News

Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

May 22, 8:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.31%chance

466809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

375

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82617

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

July-Dec 2025

Feb-June 2025

69

49

45

35

20

10

8

0

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2025? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

262355

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Eiffel Tower (France)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Vatican City

Panama Canal (Panama)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

The Louvre (France)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Hoover Dam (United States)

99

34

33

18

11

10

10

10

10

10

9

9

8

7

5

3

3

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

431593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?

Nov 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.8%chance

181361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

844

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

15833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

16.29%chance

16705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

933

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.19%chance

11560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

907

Will there be a Luigi Mangione Copycat before Jan 1, 2026

Dec 13, 12:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.98%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

47

Northwestern antisemetic graffiti perpetrator a Zionist?

Apr 16, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:05 AM

33%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.25%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

937

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

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