Perpetrator News

Louvre robbers apprehended before Christmas?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

98.12%chance

412172727

OptionVotes

YES

7227

138

Nobel Peace Prize insider charged in 2025?

Oct 10, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

2510334

OptionVotes

YES

9756

103

Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

May 22, 8:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.88%chance

467559

OptionVotes

YES

3419

293

What will be true of the explosion at Harvard Medical School?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 2, 3:42 PM

216319

OptionProbability

The explosion was intentional

At least one suspect will be apprehended within one month

Both suspects on security footage will be apprehended

No injuries will result from the explosion

The explosion will be investigated by the FBI

It was motivated by a grudge against the medical school

It was politically motivated

More explosive devices will be found at Harvard

At least one perpetrator is female

Both perpetrators will remain unidentified for at least 1 year

At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?

Oct 20, 5:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

98.96%chance

272839

OptionVotes

YES

975

Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?

Nov 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.9%chance

202371

OptionVotes

YES

2803

761

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

431593

OptionVotes

YES

178

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.76%chance

131519

OptionVotes

YES

1206

829

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.39%chance

17855

OptionVotes

YES

1360

906

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

15833

OptionVotes

YES

1088

919

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

1292

908

Northwestern antisemetic graffiti perpetrator a Zionist?

Apr 16, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:05 AM

41%chance

7125

OptionVotes

YES

120

Perpetrator News

Prediction markets for Perpetrator

Prediction markets for Perpetrator

Prediction markets for Perpetrator

Louvre robbers apprehended before Christmas?

Nobel Peace Prize insider charged in 2025?

Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

What will be true of the explosion at Harvard Medical School?

At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?

Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Northwestern antisemetic graffiti perpetrator a Zionist?

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