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Prediction markets for Personal AI

We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030

Feb 18, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.39%chance

19229785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1604

922

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Jan 30, 10:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.2%chance

14016764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3367

685

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?

Jan 15, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

235325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3898

257

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

0

0

0

0

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Mar 15, 12:02 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.78%chance

553337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

914

Will an AI Tutor (LLM personalized for each student) replace conventional teaching by 2035?

Mar 11, 10:02 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

62.9%chance

211492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

578

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.23%chance

211404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

523

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.33%chance

291385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

849

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Dec 27, 11:36 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.68%chance

16523

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1013

904

AI: When will a laptop be smarter than a person?

Dec 11, 6:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.7%chance

15411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1061

926

AI company markets 'personality preservation' for model deprecations by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

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