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Prediction markets for Personal AI Code Assistant

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?

Feb 12, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

241204

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

<2028

<2027

<2026

<2025

88

76

62

58

48

32

5

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

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