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Prediction markets for Personal Assistants

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

780

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.33%chance

32964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

881

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

Feb 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

Jun 10, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2865

OptionProbability

80% to 90%

90% or more

60% to 70%

70% to 80%

50% to 60%

40% to 50%

Less than 40%

25

20

17

15

11

6

5

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?

Aug 23, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94%chance

12585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

396

25

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Will Jose Luis Ricon value his time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will Lada Nuzhna value her time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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