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Prediction markets for Personal Assistants

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

780

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

Feb 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.7%chance

26978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

52

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.33%chance

32964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

881

Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?

Aug 23, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.94%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

33

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.09%chance

12510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

142

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Will Jose Luis Ricon value his time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will Lada Nuzhna value her time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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