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Prediction markets for Personal Assistants

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

825

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users by end-2025?

Sep 23, 2:03 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

31.62%chance

16980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

680

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

76.01%chance

3780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1780

562

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

Feb 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.53%chance

20676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

9406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

317

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Will Lada Nuzhna value her time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will Jose Luis Ricon value his time highly enough to hire a personal assistant by 2027?

Sep 11, 5:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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