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Prediction markets for Personal Context

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8%chance

117231827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

957

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.32%chance

72109404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10376

758

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?

Nov 13, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.7%chance

586465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2064

154

If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes

Jun 20, 5:45 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

31.12%chance

234630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

423

Will anyone who previously received a presidential pardon be charged/prosecuted/arrested by the Trump administration?

Mar 17, 2:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

26.58%chance

353903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1662

602

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.71%chance

493249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

925

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.05%chance

11895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

767

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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