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Prediction markets for Personal Context

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

5.91%chance

126234905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4112

889

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

38

24

Will anyone who previously received a presidential pardon be charged/prosecuted/arrested by the Trump administration?

Mar 17, 2:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

26.58%chance

353903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1662

602

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Nov 16, 6:00 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

40%chance

162553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will Screeps be the subject of a lawsuit for distributing malware by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.99%chance

31581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2479

403

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.75%chance

71491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

868

Will Scott Alexander's "N" trick fail?

Jan 25, 9:33 PMJan 26, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

19674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

924

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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