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Prediction markets for Personal Context

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

1.02%chance

73125453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25871

431

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

38

24

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5679

2185

Will anyone who previously received a presidential pardon be charged/prosecuted/arrested by the Trump administration?

Mar 17, 2:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

24.37%chance

354003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1762

568

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.03%chance

733334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1583

952

US president makes official announcement confirming UFOs or extraterrestrials before 2033?

Nov 16, 6:00 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

39.88%chance

182731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will Screeps be the subject of a lawsuit for distributing malware by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

41831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2729

366

Will Scott Alexander's "N" trick fail?

Jan 25, 9:33 PMJan 26, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

19674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

924

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.23%chance

21611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

899

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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