Phase II News

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

48290606

OptionVotes

YES

7778

4822

Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?

Aug 3, 6:20 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

68%chance

8911997

OptionVotes

YES

1589

1587

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.32%chance

182292

OptionVotes

YES

2260

591

Will Deuterated N,N-Dimethyltryptamine undergo phase III trials by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.13%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

148

111

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM

15.79%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

219

Before 2035, will evidence indicate BPC-157’s side effects make it not-recommended for musculoskeletal injury recovery?

Jun 28, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?

Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM

56.27%chance

666

OptionVotes

YES

946

945

💊Will INS018_055 be FDA-approved by 2030?

Nov 14, 8:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.78%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?

Sep 9, 4:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

418

OptionProbability

Robotic Technologies Enabling the Exploration of Lunar Pits

Direct Multipixel Imaging and Spectroscopy of an Exoplanet with a Solar Gravitational Lens Mission

Diffractive Solar Sailing

Cube-Sat Space Flight Test of a Neutrino Detector

Mini Bee Prototype to Demonstrate the Apis Mission Architecture and Optical Mining Technology

None of the above

Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030?

May 26, 9:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.43%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

Phase II News

Prediction markets for Phase II

Prediction markets for Phase II

Prediction markets for Phase II

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Will Deuterated N,N-Dimethyltryptamine undergo phase III trials by EOY 2027?

[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?

Before 2035, will evidence indicate BPC-157’s side effects make it not-recommended for musculoskeletal injury recovery?

Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?

💊Will INS018_055 be FDA-approved by 2030?

Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?

Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030?

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