Phase III News
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Prediction markets for Phase III
OptionVotes
700
14
Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
14.32%chance
182292
OptionVotes
2260
591
OptionVotes
1350
741
Will Deuterated N,N-Dimethyltryptamine undergo phase III trials by EOY 2027?
Jan 17, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.13%chance
7295
OptionVotes
148
111
Will a novel therapeutic/device which confers a survival benefit for glioblastoma be FDA approved by EOY 2028?
Aug 16, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.77%chance
4290
OptionVotes
840
428
When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?
Jun 30, 1:25 PMDec 30, 2:21 PM
2290
OptionProbability
55
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM
15.79%chance
5156
OptionVotes
219
69
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
Will a dengue vaccine based on TV003/TV005 be approved before 2050?
Jan 4, 12:34 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
61.94%chance
553
OptionVotes
341
288
OptionProbability
28
20
15
12
12
12
Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030?
May 26, 9:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
57.43%chance
212
OptionVotes
78
63