OptionProbability
In 2030 or earlier
In 2028 or earlier
In 2029 or earlier
In 2027 or earlier
In 2026 or earlier
In 2024
In 2025 or earlier
30
27
26
12
11
0
An AI injuring or killing someone by accident
AIs taking jobs
An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive
Something porn-related
AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities
An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to
An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to
An AI not being sufficiently woke
An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")
An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent
An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips
An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed
An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals
An AI that makes scientific advancements
An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior
24
17
16
6
5
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1154
872
2030+ or never
End of 2029
End of 2028
End of 2027
End of 2026
End of 2025
65
37
28
22
2
