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Prediction markets for Physical AI

Major physics discovery thanks to AI by the end of 2025?

Aug 25, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.41%chance

9611253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4889

832

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.81%chance

563525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

805

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

25.25%chance

17944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

905

Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025

Aug 29, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.23%chance

26855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

917

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?

Aug 27, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

26829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

960

Will 6G use AI in the physical layer? (Rel 19, 2025ish)

Jan 19, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

21454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

939

Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?

Jan 20, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.05%chance

15332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

949

Will AI be in used in a cellular wireless (5G, 6G) physical layer before 2027?

Jan 26, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.68%chance

16287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

862

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to simulation based inference?

Aug 27, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19%chance

498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 17, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.44%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

970

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