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Prediction markets for Physics

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55.37%chance

7012277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

389

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

63.05%chance

796800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14152

8635

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Mar 4, 2:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.11%chance

896285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

655

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.71%chance

243712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

382

Will there be a virtual state with no physical territory by 2040?

Aug 19, 10:10 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

24.44%chance

432233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1641

1132

At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?

Feb 10, 12:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.38%chance

331184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

824

Will AirBnB make an acquisition in the physical hotel space before 2026?

Nov 21, 1:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.13%chance

131113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

757

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?

Aug 27, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

26829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

960

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.9%chance

17766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

951

Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?

Jan 20, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.05%chance

15332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

949

Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?

Aug 14, 2:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.47%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

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