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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

48190222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7361

4947

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

209446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10015

9985

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

57.3%chance

663617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

993

How many of the DoE Reactor Pilot Program projects will achieve criticality by 2026-07-04?

Aug 13, 10:40 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

72124

OptionProbability

1

2

3-4

5-6

7-8

0

9-11

56

25

9

4

4

1

1

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

Feb 5, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

122084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1968

508

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

191794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.83%chance

301494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

167

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.26%chance

19595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

603

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Feb 12, 8:44 AMFeb 12, 8:37 AM

60.51%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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