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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

47789897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7410

4932

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 26, 8:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.92%chance

278721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3013

332

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

54272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13540

7386

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.81%chance

273910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3422

343

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

68.56%chance

653403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

807

Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 9:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

272605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

901

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Delta Flight 4819's pilot confirmed to be a woman

Feb 20, 9:00 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

75.64%chance

41130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

568

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-07-04?

Aug 13, 10:38 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

2220

OptionProbability

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Radiant Industries Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Valar Atomics Inc.

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

50

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

34

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.31%chance

15163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

964

Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?

Mar 30, 4:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.47%chance

990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

233

Will a Taiwanese armed forces pilot defect to China with their aircraft before 2030?

Dec 12, 2:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

23.65%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

98

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