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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.4%chance

47990058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7184

5003

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 26, 8:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.1%chance

2915322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9482

105

Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 9:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.02%chance

304965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3459

582

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

31.16%chance

124865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14865

6727

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 2:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

124410

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2025

2025

2023

2024

98

1

0

0

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

54272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13540

7386

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

283940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3099

373

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

68.56%chance

653403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

807

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.31%chance

15163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

964

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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