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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

4937

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026

Mar 10, 12:26 AMJan 17, 6:59 AM

52.59%chance

256087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

271

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

57.3%chance

663617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

993

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

Feb 5, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.23%chance

111884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

566

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.72%chance

17413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

725

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Feb 12, 8:44 AMFeb 12, 8:37 AM

60.51%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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