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Prediction markets for Pills

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

48190222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7361

4947

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.68%chance

219496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10065

9936

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

191794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

By the end of what year will there be a male anticonception pill on the market (approved in both the US and the EU)

Jan 22, 7:30 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

261784

OptionProbability

2030

Other

2029

2028

2026

2031

2024

33

33

12

8

7

6

1

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.83%chance

301494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

167

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.74%chance

11445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will I meaningfully choke from eating pills without fluids by 2030?

Nov 10, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

39

Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?

Mar 30, 4:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.47%chance

990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

233

Will Trump eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill before the end of 2027?

Aug 13, 4:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.86%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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