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Prediction markets for Pills

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

48090112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7294

4968

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026

Mar 10, 12:26 AMJan 17, 6:59 AM

52.59%chance

256087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

271

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 7:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

453989

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2026

2030

2024

2023

63

20

5

4

3

2

2

1

0

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

10409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will I meaningfully choke from eating pills without fluids by 2030?

Nov 10, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

39

Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?

Mar 30, 4:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.47%chance

990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

233

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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