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Prediction markets for Plan 21

LeBron James traded this offseason?

Jun 30, 11:35 AMOct 21, 11:34 AM

8.11%chance

285466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

823

101

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

262437

OptionProbability

Other

Earbuds

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Wearable badge

Watch

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

60

22

7

6

3

2

1

How fast will I run in the 5k by August 25, 2025?

Mar 5, 1:35 AMAug 26, 6:59 AM

21983

OptionProbability

Faster than 21:00

Faster than 20:00

Faster than 19:00

Faster than 18:00

Faster than 17:00

95

93

55

8

1

Will I complete Atkins' Chemical Principles and Klein's Organic Chemistry Textbooks by September 2025?

Jun 1, 1:10 AMAug 30, 11:59 PM

11.52%chance

11763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

635

14

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

There will be a new CS2 Operation in 2025?

May 31, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will Heathrow increase monthly air transport movements from 40,000 to 50,000 before 2030?

Oct 11, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.47%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?

Jan 20, 7:37 AMJan 20, 3:59 PM

4142

OptionProbability

20-24

25-29

15-19

30-34

At least 35 states

Less than 15 states

36

23

18

8

8

7

Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto?

Dec 7, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.37%chance

8123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

290

Will NASA or any other space agency have a plan for interstellar travel by 2100

Dec 21, 8:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

8108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

236

139

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

59.57%chance

471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

93

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