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Prediction markets for Plan for Change

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.55%chance

33282258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

2426900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?

Sep 15, 12:29 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18.29%chance

477378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3654

1310

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

90.2%chance

185249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4897

736

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

132736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11683

8566

Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?

Apr 2, 2:31 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

32.76%chance

191635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

343

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

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