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Prediction markets for Planet Earth

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15%chance

165140813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

596

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

70.65%chance

10883701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2145

618

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.88%chance

766325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3054

1067

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

919

Will there be a space elevator by 2050?

Oct 25, 5:17 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

20.29%chance

23967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

969

Who will Win a War if Aliens attack planet Earth?

Oct 6, 8:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.33%chance

11932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

985

Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080?

Aug 2, 9:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.4%chance

8603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

513

82

🧑‍🚀 What will be true about the first person(s) to walk on a planet other than Mars and Earth? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 9, 1:06 AMJan 1, 5:45 PM

16466

OptionProbability

At least 1 Male

At least 1 has been in the army/air force / armed forces of their country

At least 1 Female

At least 1 American Citizen

at least 1 Chinese Citizen

At least 1 born in Europe

at least 1 Bald

At least 1: Aged 50 or older

83

79

73

71

38

37

37

33

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

38

27

22

5

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which planet in the Solar System will be the most viewed on Wikipedia in 2025, other than Earth?

Jul 3, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14433

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Mars

Venus

Saturn

Mercury

Uranus

Neptune

49

42

3

3

1

1

1

On how many planets will there be humans, on the morning of January 1st, 2100 (GMT, earth time)?

Feb 20, 6:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12424

OptionProbability

2

0

1

10+

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

44

18

17

12

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040?

Jan 30, 10:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.37%chance

14324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

985

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