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Prediction markets for Planet Earth

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.45%chance

175159550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

304

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80%chance

130106735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2642

458

Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?

Feb 9, 6:33 PMFeb 10, 12:00 AM

72%chance

421984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

937

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will there be a space elevator by 2050?

Oct 25, 5:17 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

19.33%chance

241017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080?

Aug 2, 9:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.51%chance

10614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

506

82

🧑‍🚀 What will be true about the first person(s) to walk on a planet other than Mars and Earth? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 9, 1:06 AMJan 1, 5:45 PM

17473

OptionProbability

At least 1 Male

At least 1 has been in the army/air force / armed forces of their country

At least 1 Female

At least 1 American Citizen

at least 1 Chinese Citizen

At least 1 born in Europe

at least 1 Bald

At least 1: Aged 50 or older

83

80

73

70

38

37

36

33

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

38

27

22

5

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

On how many planets will there be humans, on the morning of January 1st, 2100 (GMT, earth time)?

Feb 20, 6:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12424

OptionProbability

2

1

10+

0

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

47

19

14

9

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040?

Jan 30, 10:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

68.32%chance

15339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

956

Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?

May 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.97%chance

795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

97

Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?

May 9, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.85%chance

394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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