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Prediction markets for Play

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46%chance

20071655555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4698

4006

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.24%chance

474397651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3169

1977

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.84%chance

25034655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2610

1919

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7612688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.98%chance

547035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3651

274

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

32771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

75

24

1

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

252351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

875

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

202332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2600

239

Will Danny Devito play Wario in any official Nintendo movie before the end of 2029?

May 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

241406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2658

1552

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.89%chance

191017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

548

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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