OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Neymar plays in a match
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Team loses after leading 2-0
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
3+ penalty shootout
Trump still alive at end of final match
Trump attends match
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Player scores 8+ goals
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
Players cleat falls off their foot
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
Any host nation in quarter final
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Emmanuel Macron attends match
No red cards issued in the Final match
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
France becomes finalist
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Asian player misses penalty kick
Player with 9 or more assists
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Panenka penalty to be scored
20+ penalty goals
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Elon Musk attends match
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
An even number of games go to a shootout
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Messi gets a yellow card
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Both teams in final have red on their flag
US goes further than Mexico
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Goal scored within 1st minute
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Over 14.5 own goals scored
VAR overturns second yellow card
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Spain goes further than France
Betting scandal reported
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
2 UEFA teams in final
Winning team has a foreign manager
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Canada goes further than US
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Team captain gets red card
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
A host country reaches the semi-finals
Messi scores on every game he plays
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Flares in stands during match in USA
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
25+ people arrested at stadium
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Three straight games going to penalties
England loses on penalties
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
King Charles attends match
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
30+ penalty goals
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Salt Bae attending a match
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
5+ hat tricks
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Fans invade field during match
Freddy attends the final match
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Football is coming home?
Ronaldo does not start
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
15+ cards in any match
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Major security incident
Another match with 3+ red cards
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Goal scored from own half
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Asian player gets the red card
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
Bald person gets the red card
Player gets spat on during match
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Norway becomes finalist
Player bit during match
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Trump attends 3 or more games
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Trump dancing at match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
10+ goals in any match
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Any match is canceled or postponed
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Asia team reaches semi final
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Match is forfeited
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Belgium becomes finalist
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Player shits in the pants during match
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Team gets removed or disqualified
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Players / members of team attempt to defect
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
All 3 host countries win the opener
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Ronaldo scores before Messi
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
The Netherlands reaches half-final
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1213
950
OptionProbability
Root plays
Australia Wins
England Bat First
England Win Toss
Rain Delay
One day has a max temperature below 20C
Finishes before day 5
Cummins Plays
Root 100
Game canceled
Draw
Tie
76
55
50
50
50
50
50
46
34
24
24
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
105
95
