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Prediction markets for PLE

Will Khamzat Chimaev defeat Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319?

May 26, 6:17 PMAug 18, 6:16 PM

52.6%chance

189131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

9493

Will Mark Meadows change his plea to guilty in Fulton County?

Sep 13, 9:47 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

9.99%chance

217187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

797

Will the Global Methane Pledge be met?

Feb 3, 9:50 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

211805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

800

Will "Please support this blog (with money)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 18, 5:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.33%chance

31502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2493

862

Will "Please stop using mediocre AI art in your posts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.33%chance

11500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

862

Can fungi feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 11:56 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

12898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

941

Will Donald Trump be offered a plea deal in Fulton County?

Oct 20, 10:25 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

11.19%chance

19851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

852

Can plants feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.36%chance

20792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

974

Will Sam Trabucco plead guilty?

Dec 23, 5:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.5%chance

14787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

681

Will the ultimate end of humanity be converting as much of the universe into minds experiencing pleasure as possible?

Aug 26, 5:43 PMAug 27, 3:59 AM

20.27%chance

24623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

908

Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 9:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)

Jun 19, 12:59 AMJan 2, 1:55 AM

50.75%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

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