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Plex News
Prediction markets for Plex
Prediction markets for Plex
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
Jul 9, 2:03 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%
chance
5
427
Option
Votes
YES
NO
273
37
Will the Monarch (Danaus plexippus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 28, 1:58 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
13.81%
chance
10
356
Option
Votes
YES
NO
713
423
Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?
May 8, 4:28 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
77.54%
chance
12
291
Option
Votes
NO
YES
186
54
Will Pax Dei feature a PLEX-like system?
Dec 19, 10:17 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
41.32%
chance
1
11
Option
Votes
YES
NO
79
62
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