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Prediction markets for PLO

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

1619

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

21322656

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

United States

Other

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

A new Gaza-elected government

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

Qatar

Jordan

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

42

24

11

8

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?

Oct 29, 5:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

785388

OptionProbability

Israel, occupation

Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)

Other

Israel, annexed

PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority

Hamas, status quo

Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime

Arab puppet regime

Hamas, significantly increased control (no blockade, anything up to independence)

55

23

8

4

4

2

2

1

0

After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 10, 11:59 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

131427

OptionProbability

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

PLO

Hamas

United States of America

Other

Other

African-Only Peacekeeping Force

25

21

15

14

10

6

4

4

1

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.44%chance

10671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

604

70

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.87%chance

21637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

955

Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?

Jun 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 6:44 PM

15.56%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

69.5%chance

688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

369

258

Will at least one of William Eden's kids be part of "the plot" and uplift humanity out of NPC-dom by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.59%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

74

Will the two US citizens involved in the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump be convicted?

Nov 8, 6:01 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025?

Jan 17, 10:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

Will @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, or @KatanHya be put in a dwarf fortress plot?

Apr 8, 4:43 AMApr 16, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

111

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