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PLO News

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.78%chance

19278703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3186

1087

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23229935

OptionProbability

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

A new Gaza-elected government

Turkey

32

30

24

4

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GTA6 have anyone commit suicide in its plot?

Oct 24, 8:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

1220474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 10, 11:59 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

222184

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

PLO

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

United States of America

Other

Other

African-Only Peacekeeping Force

32

30

15

10

8

2

1

1

0

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

864

47

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

949

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

22%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will at least one of William Eden's kids be part of "the plot" and uplift humanity out of NPC-dom by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.59%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

74

Will generative.ink be used to guide the plotline of a future video game like Watchdogs or Deus Ex 5?

Sep 22, 5:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.42%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

72

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, or @KatanHya be put in a dwarf fortress plot?

Apr 8, 4:43 AMApr 16, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

111

Will the Kentish plover, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2050?

Nov 2, 3:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

47

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