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Prediction markets for Plotly AI

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.87%chance

354261898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2038

1317

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.7%chance

12754758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

1129

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

429820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.11%chance

577494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4363

525

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

333130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

936

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.84%chance

12936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

789

52

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7738

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Above 500

66

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

949

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

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