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Prediction markets for Plotly AI

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.74%chance

288173569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2803

983

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

1619

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

95.76%chance

11745339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4614

1347

When will the average number of submissions to top AI conferences first decline over the previous year?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46979

OptionProbability

2025

>2034

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031-2034

Other

17

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.16%chance

323030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

947

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

57.53%chance

391946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

674

Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s?

Jan 6, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

191157

OptionProbability

Project Hail Mary

Hyperion

Old Man's War

Children of Blood and Bone

The Mote in God's Eye

The Amulet of Samarkand

A Fire Upon the Deep

The Lies of Locke Lamora

Permutation City

Revelation Space

The Final Empire

The Blade Itself

Assassin's Apprentice

The Way of Kings

Ancillary Justice

The Name of the Wind

Use of Weapons

Consider Phlebas

A Deepness in the Sky

Stranger in a Strange Land

Shards of Honor

The Left Hand of Darkness

The Forever War

Blindsight

Consider Phlebas

The Shadow of the Torturer

The Diamond Age

Kushiel's Dart

Rant: The Oral Biography of Buster Casey

We Are Legion

The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

99

74

62

55

50

50

46

46

44

43

41

41

41

41

39

36

30

30

30

30

28

27

25

25

22

20

16

15

13

13

6

4

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.44%chance

10671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

604

70

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.87%chance

21637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

955

Will Globo produce a telenovela about AI before 2026?

Apr 9, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.58%chance

9201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

100

Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025?

Jan 17, 10:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

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