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Prediction markets for Plotly AI

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.94%chance

391351512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3411

823

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.78%chance

19278703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3186

1087

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.92%chance

12755508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1879

1543

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.71%chance

577515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4802

504

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

1226

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5.24%chance

355565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

395457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

327

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve movable housing?

May 16, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

333130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

936

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

864

47

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

949

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030

Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6372

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

Above 500

6 - 10

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

11 - 25

47

12

9

7

7

7

7

6

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