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Prediction markets for Plugins

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

5610829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

876

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

247450

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

96

92

87

6

0

0

What major changes will Runescape 3 have in 2026?

Feb 6, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2705

OptionProbability

Major rework of an existing quest

Removal or rework of Daily Challenges

Removal or rework of Wilderness events

Making some existing dailyscape no longer available to iron accounts (but still available to mains)

Plugins for official client

Removal of stalling (from a different npc)

Removal of at least one lodestone

Removal of Wars Retreat

Removal of all lodestones

100

100

100

54

46

35

15

11

11

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.6%chance

10668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

123

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.08%chance

16466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

68

When will electric cars (BEV+PHEV) pass 50% market share in the UK?

Jan 12, 1:19 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

6345

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2027

2026

2025

Other

2024

21

20

18

15

14

6

5

1

Legal requirements around avatar race presentation in the US or EU before 2046

Jun 7, 9:16 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

37.08%chance

14337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

941

When will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 90% of all car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:15 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

43.71%chance

5169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

366

214

Which year will electric and plugin hybrid new car sales be a majority of all new car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:09 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

38.96%chance

355

OptionProbability

NO

YES

325

80

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