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Prediction markets for Plugins

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.86%chance

5510779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

892

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

247240

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

96

92

87

9

0

0

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.95%chance

10660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

121

What major changes will Runescape 3 have in 2026?

Feb 6, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1645

OptionProbability

Removal or rework of Wilderness events

Removal or rework of Daily Challenges

Plugins for official client

Making some existing dailyscape no longer available to iron accounts (but still available to mains)

Removal of stalling (from a different npc)

Major rework of an existing quest

Removal of at least one lodestone

Removal of Wars Retreat

Removal of all lodestones

68

58

50

50

50

40

15

11

11

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.7%chance

14436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

80

When will electric cars (BEV+PHEV) pass 50% market share in the UK?

Jan 12, 1:19 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

6345

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2027

2026

2025

Other

2024

21

20

18

15

14

6

5

1

Legal requirements around avatar race presentation in the US or EU before 2046

Jun 7, 9:16 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

37.08%chance

14337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

941

When will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 90% of all car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:15 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

43.71%chance

5169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

366

214

Which year will electric and plugin hybrid new car sales be a majority of all new car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:09 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

33.64%chance

245

OptionProbability

NO

YES

315

98

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