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Prediction markets for Plus Key

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108928

17670

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.3%chance

7734228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2673

2541

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

823

Which New York Mets player will have the highest OPS in the 2025 regular season (minimum 300 plate appearances)?

Mar 6, 4:16 AMSep 29, 3:59 AM

3130

OptionProbability

Juan Soto

Pete Alonso

Francisco Lindor

Brandon Nimmo

Other

56

36

3

3

3

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

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