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Prediction markets for Pluto

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2040?

Dec 30, 9:14 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5.53%chance

233294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

890

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2030?

Jan 10, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.62%chance

163214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2828

915

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2050?

Jan 1, 8:39 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.67%chance

162835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

932

Will a human walk on Pluto before 2045?

Dec 31, 11:33 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.79%chance

252525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

917

Where will the first-known extraterrestrial life come from?

Aug 24, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

Other

Mars

Europa

Titan

Enceladus

Venus

K2-18 b

Earth

The Big Bang

Ceres

Pluto/Charon

Triton

Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

Pluto

Charon

TRAPPIST-1d

Proxima Centauri b

Unknown

58

18

8

6

5

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2050?

Jan 8, 11:09 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12.99%chance

192121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

818

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2040?

Dec 30, 2:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5.3%chance

81711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

80

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?

Dec 30, 6:30 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.4%chance

141558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

814

Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2035?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.34%chance

121432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

121

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

14

13

5

Will Pluto be reclassified as a planet before 2050?

Mar 22, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.47%chance

32982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

894

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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