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Prediction markets for Poe

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

21156696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

976

Will Mathieu van der Poel win 10 or more Monuments during his career?

Apr 1, 8:12 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

62.9%chance

131181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

187

Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 12:52 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19.81%chance

101012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

497

Will Mathieu van der Poel win all 5 monuments during his career?

Aug 8, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.6%chance

12603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

583

76

Will UV surpass Poetry in monthly PyPi downloads in before the end of 2025?

Oct 16, 4:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.32%chance

10512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

407

25

Is most of Mathieu van der Poel's road cycling success still ahead of him as of October 2023?

Oct 24, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

54.16%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

101

Will Taylor Swift's next album contain more swear words than The Tortured Poets Department?

Apr 24, 11:55 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

9297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

125

A major poetry competition will explicitly ban AI-generated submissions before September 2025

Mar 13, 2:41 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

85.2%chance

11288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

254

Will the next Taylor Swift album use the word Fuck more times than The Tortured Poet's Department?

Apr 22, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.65%chance

7190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

346

130

When will Python development tool uv overtake Poetry in JetBrains surveys?

Nov 20, 11:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

2130

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Later or never

2024

17

17

17

17

17

15

Will Mathieu van der Poel ever win the Velo d'Or award?

Oct 25, 8:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.64%chance

432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

98

83

Will Kevin Frans talk to anyone from Ken Stanley/Jeff Clune's team (or behind POET paper) in 2025?

May 17, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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