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Prediction markets for Point of Control

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.43%chance

336863593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6019

3757

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.37%chance

274107009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1728

763

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.87%chance

3328342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

349

Will the US military control at least ten percent of Iran by area at any point during 2026?

Apr 2, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.14%chance

4816275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

361

28

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will Democrats control the Senate at any point before January 31, 2030?

Nov 16, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

62%chance

251821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?

Feb 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

71598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

352

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.11%chance

18892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

925

Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?

Jul 6, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

6612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

Jul 31, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.27%chance

12311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

900

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