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Prediction markets for Points Program

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9%chance

12854309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

822

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

284973

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

100

96

96

95

0

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

938

What programming languages are among the top 10 most popular next year?

Apr 14, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18977

OptionProbability

TypeScript

Python

Javascript

Java

C#

Shell

C++

PHP

Go

Swift

Rust

Kotlin

C

Haskell

Zig

COBOL

Bicep

96

95

91

89

88

84

83

73

66

52

39

29

24

9

8

5

5

Which academic competitions or competition-related summer programs will I be accepted to before I graduate high school?

May 10, 4:43 PMMay 31, 4:27 PM

12932

OptionProbability

AIME

USNCO national competition

USAPhO

USAMO

MOP

USAPhO study camp

USNCO study camp

IPhO

IChO

IMO

68

67

33

4

4

4

4

3

3

1

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

19858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.82%chance

15352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?

May 14, 8:16 AMOct 1, 7:00 AM

67.61%chance

7112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

60

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5600

5600

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