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Prediction markets for Points Program

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

61.91%chance

9737953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1430

217

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?

Sep 18, 8:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2923084

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

28

17

4

0

0

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

938

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

70

53

51

37

2026 World Figure Skating Championships: Men's Gold Medal Winner

Mar 15, 2:47 AMMar 25, 11:59 PM

6334

OptionProbability

Ilia MALININ (USA)

Yuma KAGIYAMA (JPN)

Shun SATO (JPN)

Adam SIAO HIM FA (FRA)

Other

86

5

3

3

3

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

54

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

Sep 25, 5:08 AMSep 25, 5:04 AM

29.39%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

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