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Prediction markets for Points Program

am i fucked (will a CT scan show calcification in my basal ganglia)

Jul 22, 9:06 PMOct 21, 8:44 PM

2.83%chance

326299078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58642

1705

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264763

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

96

96

96

95

0

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.66%chance

394363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

906

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.98%chance

351217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

912

Will India launch astronauts into orbit before the end of December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 9:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.18%chance

5860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

11

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.86%chance

14683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

944

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

54

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.48%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

Which programming language feature will enter the mainstream next?

Apr 20, 6:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

310

OptionProbability

Other

Monads

Dependent types

Rank polymorphism

Tactics

Refinement types

Uniqueness typing

Algebraic effects

15

14

14

13

12

11

10

10

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