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Prediction markets for Points Program

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

13056475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

922

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?

Oct 2, 6:28 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

1.81%chance

3219781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7365

136

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.3%chance

363622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30796

28524

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.56%chance

391524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

872

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.8%chance

201061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.09%chance

12510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

142

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7362

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

93

51

Am I Autistic?

Dec 13, 6:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.98%chance

22284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

154

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will prompting of generalist models be the dominant method of interaction with LLMs on 1 January 2028?

Jun 15, 2:33 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.6%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

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