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Prediction markets for Points Program

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

60%chance

11144026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

231

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14083

6658

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497028

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

37

32

14

12

10

8

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264773

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

96

96

96

95

0

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

938

Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMJun 30, 10:00 PM

27%chance

191076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

92

Which academic competitions or competition-related summer programs will I be accepted to before I graduate high school?

May 10, 4:43 PMMay 31, 4:27 PM

10925

OptionProbability

AIME

USNCO national competition

USAPhO

USAMO

MOP

USAPhO study camp

USNCO study camp

IPhO

IChO

IMO

66

66

33

4

4

4

4

3

3

1

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035?

Feb 23, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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