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Prediction markets for Points Program

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

12956322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

841

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

44.34%chance

323357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29765

27549

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.6%chance

391474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

938

Donald Trump utilisera-t-il la bombe nucléaire contre l' Iran pour gagner la guerre ?

Apr 1, 11:36 AMApr 1, 11:35 AM

3.66%chance

61198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

513

19

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

19887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

970

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will the Springfield-Greene County Library start circulating video games before December 2029?

Oct 18, 12:38 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

37.17%chance

1300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

100

Am I Autistic?

Dec 13, 6:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.98%chance

22284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

154

[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules

Mar 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

77

44

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will prompting of generalist models be the dominant method of interaction with LLMs on 1 January 2028?

Jun 15, 2:33 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.6%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

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