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OptionProbability
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Coyote - Canis latrans
[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉
[⚔️Frontrunner] Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]
❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]
❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]
❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Will any team score 40+ runs?
Will any team score 50+ runs?
Will any team score 60+ runs?
Will any team score 70+ runs?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers score 20+ runs?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays score 20+ runs?
Will the Atlanta Braves score 20+ runs?
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers score 20+ runs?
Will the Chicago Cubs score 20+ runs?
Will the New York Yankees score 20+ runs?
Will any team score 90+ runs?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays score 20+ runs?
Will the Houston Astros score 20+ runs?
Will the Texas Rangers score 20+ runs?
Will the Boston Red Sox score 20+ runs?
Will the Philadelphia Phillies score 20+ runs?
Will any team score 100+ runs?
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks score 20+ runs?
Will the Cleveland Guardians score 20+ runs?
Will the Seattle Mariners score 20+ runs?
Will the San Diego Padres score 20+ runs?
Will any team score 105+ runs to break Toronto's record from 2025?
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers score 80+ runs?
Will the Detroit Tigers score 20+ runs?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays score 80+ runs?
Will any National League team score 100+ runs?
Will any American League team score 100+ runs?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers score 80+ runs?
Will the New York Yankees score 80+ runs?
Will the Atlanta Braves score 80+ runs?
Will the Chicago Cubs score 80+ runs?
Will any team score 110+ runs?
Will the Baltimore Orioles score 20+ runs?
Will the Philadelphia Phillies score 80+ runs?
Will the Houston Astros score 80+ runs?
Will the Boston Red Sox score 80+ runs?
Will the Seattle Mariners score 80+ runs?
Will the Cleveland Guardians score 80+ runs?
Will the Washington Nationals score 20+ runs?
Will the Texas Rangers score 80+ runs?
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks score 80+ runs?
Will the Detroit Tigers score 80+ runs?
Will the St. Louis Cardinals score 20+ runs?
Will any team score 120+ runs?
Will the San Diego Padres score 80+ runs?
Will the Minnesota Twins score 80+ runs?
Will the Baltimore Orioles score 80+ runs?
Will the Miami Marlins score 80+ runs?
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates score 80+ runs?
Will the Cincinnati Reds score 20+ runs?
Will the San Francisco Giants score 20+ runs?
Will the Toronto Blue Jays score 20+ runs?
Will the Minnesota Twins score 20+ runs?
Will the Athletics score 80+ runs?
Will the New York Mets score 80+ runs?
Will the St. Louis Cardinals score 80+ runs?
Will the San Francisco Giants score 80+ runs?
Will the Toronto Blue Jays score 80+ runs?
Will the Kansas City Royals score 80+ runs?
Will the Cincinnati Reds score 80+ runs?
Will the Colorado Rockies score 80+ runs?
Will the Washington Nationals score 80+ runs?
Will the Los Angeles Angels score 80+ runs?
Will the Kansas City Royals score 20+ runs?
Will the Athletics score 20+ runs?
Will the Colorado Rockies score 20+ runs?
Will the Los Angeles Angels score 20+ runs?
Will the Miami Marlins score 20+ runs?
Will the New York Mets score 20+ runs?
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates score 20+ runs?
99
98
92
91
68
68
66
63
59
58
57
57
41
36
35
34
31
31
31
30
26
24
22
21
20
20
20
16
15
13
13
13
12
11
11
11
11
11
9
8
7
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
China
Spacex
NASA
Blue Origin
Other
US Space Force
Japan
Russia
42
33
19
4
2
0
0
0
OptionProbability
World's First Trillionaire
Measles Outbreak
I do 1 (one) Pull-up
Blue Wave
Big Youtuber Quits
New Smell Invented
Chevy Bolt is a Huge Success
NVDA Down 35% From Peak
New dinosaur named for tiktok thing
World's 1st Trillionaire No longer a Trillionaire
Dark "Saved by the Bell" Reboot
GTA6 Saves or ruins the economy
Apple Vision Amateur
ad supported medical care
Billionaire Sperm Bank
Beloved actor cast as Elon in biopic
Trump Declares Himself an Olympian
Famous person marries an AI
RFK jr gets himself fired
Waymo Car learns to do donuts
Shadow Biosphere
New Particle
OpenAI Makes GPT Phone
T.Swift Married in Montana
"Don't Die" guy does funniest possible thing
94
89
85
83
69
65
58
52
36
35
34
31
31
28
25
20
19
18
18
13
13
10
5
5
3
OptionProbability
A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.
F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.
I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.
G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.
B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.
C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.
H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.
D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.
E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.
39
24
16
10
5
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
death stranding 2 releases
bitcoin reaches 80k
end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)
Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access
Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )
Silksong
mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube
Alec Baldwin case ends
Trump running mate announced
2024 election is called by AP
The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates
Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Solar panels removed from the White House (again).
tortured poet's department releases
the end of manifest 2024
the start of manifest 2024
julian Assange extradited to usa
spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases
gta 6 releases
The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced
Joe Biden passes away or is murdered
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)
Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something
binance cease operating
Windows 12 released
trump found guilty of a crime
the ukraine russia war ends
human walks on the moon again
The last case of Guinea worm in humans
azerbaijian invades armenia
first female president
Ukraine joins NATO
destiny goes on joe rogan
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
92
90
90
86
76
57
54
50
50
50
50
41
40
37
34
23
22
20
20
14
13
12
11
8
5
4
3
3
OptionProbability
Blue wave midterms
Cyber terrorism incident
AI slop completely takes over platforms
More assassinations
Obesity rates dramatically decline
Measles cases triple
Chain movie theaters close across the country
More governments embrace Bitcoin
Really bad hurricane season
AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)
Americans become more united
Trump has (another?) stroke
A major merger of streaming services
Solar power doubles
Emo makes a comeback
YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers
Stagflation
Gen Alpha rebels against digital media
EV sales skyrocket
A new nonpartisan political movement starts
Robot restaurant trend
War with Venezuela
Everyone becomes a hipster
Twitter shuts down
75
72
66
66
66
55
50
50
45
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
26
24
24
24
24
17
17
17
OptionProbability
Dog
Blue whale
Platypus
Panda
Homo Sapiens Sapiens
Bat
Pangolin
Wooly mammoth
Passenger Pigeon
Saber tooth tiger
Neanderthal
62
56
50
49
48
44
44
31
23
18
7
OptionProbability
black/brown (coal gasification)
green (renewable electricity + water electrolysis)
gray (steam methane reforming)
white/gold (geologic: stimulated serpentinization or microbial biogeochemistry)
pink (nuclear electricity + water electrolysis)
blue (steam methane reforming + carbon capture)
turquoise (methane pyrolysis)
Other
24
22
20
11
10
5
4
4
OptionProbability
Q3 2027
Q4 2027
Q1 2028
Q2 2027
Q2 2028
Q4 2030
Other
Q3 2028
Q3 2029
Blue Moon HLS Cancelled
Q2 2030
Q3 2030
Q4 2028
Q1 2030
Q1 2027
Q1 2029
Q2 2029
Q4 2029
10
10
10
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
SpaceX
Blue Origin
Neither by December 31, 2032
56
28
16
OptionProbability
brown
orange
purple
green
blue
red
yellow
17
17
17
17
17
8
6