Pokémon card News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

USA experiences a recession.

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump says a racial slur

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

John Bolton indicted

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Approval < 25%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Trump and Obama shake hands

BTC falls below $38,000

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump runs for a third term

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump gets shot

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

US Invasion of any North/South American country

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

A major war in Asia occurs

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump and Melania divorce

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

SpaceX is nationalized

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

10% fewer government agencies

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

It will be released first in 2025

In mid 2026 there wil lbe more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

It will have four playable characters on release

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Team will be scoreless for a quarter

Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback

Winning team has more total yards

First play from scrimmage is a rush

Opening kickoff result is a touchback

Last play is 'victory formation'

Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration

Player crying during national anthem

Quarterback runs in for a touchdown

Announcer says "goat"

Player gets carted off the field

All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)

Current or former US President in attendance

Announcer says "tush push"

First score is a touchdown

Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

Team that scores last wins the game

Score is tied again after 0-0

Broadcast uses video from pylon camera

Both teams score in 1st quarter

Failed 4th down attempt

Gatorade shower color is yellow/green

An administrative timeout is taken

Player goes into the blue tent

Winning team has more passing yards

Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown

Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made

Holding call in 4th quarter

Taylor Swift is at the game

Chains used to measure first down 1+ times

WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points

First turnover is an interception

Head coach throws a challenge flag

Tom Brady is at the game

Super Bowl is won by a bird team

First score is a field goal

Coin toss is 'heads'

Coin toss is 'tails'

National anthem is over 2 minutes

Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

50+ yard field goal is made

Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

Any player scores 2+ touchdowns

Winning margin is 10+ points

Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

Kicker is iced

2 point conversion attempted

Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game

Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs

Any player scores 7+ points individually

Ruling on the field gets overturned by review

Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game

No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game

Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer

Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given

Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions

Tush Push touchdown is made

Injury timeout is taken

Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd

[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]

[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]

First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics

Any player has a 60+ yard reception

Both teams complete their first pass attempt

Special teams touchdown

Onside kick attempt

Player shown eating a snack on the sideline

Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

Altercation occurs between a player and a coach

Trick play results in positive yardage

Both teams have a 4th quarter lead

Kick is missed

Successful 2-point conversion

First drive of game is a '3 and out'

Team leading at halftime loses

Live animal enters the field of play

50+ yard return

Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

Player retires immediately after game

Backup QB gets put in the game

A player catches the ball with one hand

Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

No penalties in the 4th quarter

Any player successfully hurdles a defender

Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl

Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

Unauthorized person gets on the field of play

Winning team has more turnovers

At least one team has 0 points at halftime

Announcer says “hawk-eye”

Team has 5+ sacks

Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl

[LX total score] > [LIX total score]

Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)

A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown

Announcer says "stud"

Team is a first time super bowl winner

A player's jersey gets torn

Unauthorized person touches midfield logo

Player gets ejected from the game

Score is tied at half-time

Points scored in the first 90 seconds

Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP

Team wins by exactly one point

QB catches a pass from any player

Kick is successfully blocked

There is a doink

No rushing touchdowns scored

Pick 6 occurs

Game goes to OT

Successful 'hail mary' pass is made

Final score is scorigami

A safety is scored

Any player to score an octopus

Super Bowl MVP not from winning team

Stadium blackout occurs

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

My Little Pony

Transformers

Pokemon cards

minecraft

Tamagotchi

Pogo stick

Operation board game

Gameboy

PEZ Dispenser

Ken doll (barbie)

Beyblades

Hess trucks

Crazy Bones / Go Gos

YES

Ken doll (barbie)

Pogo stick

PEZ Dispenser

Hess trucks

Operation board game

Pokemon cards

Tamagotchi

minecraft

Beyblades

Crazy Bones / Go Gos

Gameboy

Basic Psychic Energy

Iron Thorns ex TWM 77

YES

YES

Ignore anonymity (eg making an agreement of someone other buying it to me via their foreign card and I send them money to their Russian card)

Bypass sanctions (eg paying myself)

Buy 3 (or more)