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OptionProbability
Monkey D Luffy
Baggy
Buggy the Clown
Roronoa Zoro
Blackbeard / Marshall D Teach
Red Hair Shanks
Gol D Roger
Rocks D. Xebec
Eustass Kid
Mihawk
Monkey D Dragon
Usopp
Sanji
Nico Robin
Trafalgar D. Water Law
Whitebeard / Edward Newgate
Kaido
Edward weevil
Big Mom / Charlotte Linlin
Franky
Crocodile
Tony Tony Chopper
Mr 4 / Babe
Lucky Roux
91
50
50
46
45
42
41
40
39
32
31
28
28
20
19
17
13
13
6
6
5
5
3
1
OptionProbability
Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates
Other
No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)
Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights
Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights
57
32
4
4
3
OptionProbability
[⚔️Frontrunner] Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Elephant - Loxodonta africana
Lion - Panthera leo
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis
Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus
Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Wolf - Canis lupus
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes
Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉
Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus
Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Great evening bat - Ia io
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Triceratops - Triceratops horridus
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
Dog - Canis familiaris
Cat - Felis catus
Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota
Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi
Phallic frogworm - Atretochoana eiselti
Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus
Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor
Kiwi - Apteryx australis
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
[⚔️Underdog] New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
5
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Red Dead Redemption 2
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Crimson Desert
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Grand Theft Auto VI
Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's The Division
97
81
72
70
69
69
64
60
50
48
48
43
28
24
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
18
17
11
7
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe
#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable
#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious
#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals
#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't
#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us
#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating
#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work
#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters
#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after
#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models
#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it
#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk
#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less
#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment
#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI
#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere
#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption
#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels
#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down
#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures
#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news
#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe
#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers
#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child
#176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models
99
99
53
41
34
31
30
24
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6378
3288
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2855
352
OptionVotes
NO
YES
10393
9851
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1057
822
OptionProbability
Atlanta United
Austin FC
Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire FC
FC Cincinnati
Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew
D.C. United
FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo FC
Sporting Kansas City
LA Galaxy
Los Angeles Football Club
Inter Miami CF
Minnesota United FC
CF Montreal
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
Red Bull New York
New York City Football Club
Orlando City
Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
San Diego FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders
St. Louis City SC
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
Seattle Mariners
Other
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9