OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship
[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying
[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4
[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)
[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race
[SPA] Red flag in qualifying
[SPA] Antonelli wins the race
[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3
[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium
[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10
[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2
[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3
[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4
[HUN] Antonelli on the podium
[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10
[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)
[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[ITA] Italian driver wins the race
[ITA] Red Flag during the race
[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point
[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6
[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race
[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race
[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5
[MAD] Verstappen on the podium
[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Colapinto scores points
[MAD] Linblad scores points
[MAD] An Audi scores points
[MAD] Three different teams on the podium
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AZE] Verstappen on podium
[AZE] A Williams finishes in top 10
[BHR] Intermediate or Wet tyres used in qualifying or race
[BHR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BHR] Antonelli scores more points than Russell
[BHR] Verstappen wins the race
[BHR] Aston Martin scores at least one point
[BHR] An Alpine reaches Q3
[BHR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BHR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Russel
[BHR] Lawson scores points
[BHR] A Ferrari on the podium
[SIN] Same driver wins Sprint and feature race
[SIN] 3+ DNF in Sprint
[SIN] Same driver takes pole in the sprint and main qualifying
[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[SIN] A Ferrari on the podium of the main race
[SIN] Hadjar finishes in top 10 in the main race
[COTA] A Ferrari on the podium
[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MEX] Kimi Antonelli wins the WDC Title
[MEX] Red flag during qualifying
[MEX] 4 or more DNF
[MEX] Verstappen on the podium
[MEX] Yellow flag first lap
[MEX] GP winner margin is less than 5 seconds
[BRA] Red Flag during qualifying
[BRA] Intermediate or Wet tyres used during qualifying
[BRA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[BRA] Brazilian driver reaches Q3
[BHR] Yellow flag first lap
Leave it open for the upcoming GP (tip jar)
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)
[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race
[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)
[GBR] The same driver wins both races
[GBR] Red flag during the main race
[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying
[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds
[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race
[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race
[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race
[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race
[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying
[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)
[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race
[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race
[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6
[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying
[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS
[HUN] Ferrari pole position
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3
[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10
[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium
[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson
[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race
[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying
[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying
[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend
[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race
[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race
[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race
[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying
[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race
[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points
[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race
[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5
[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)
[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium
[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Leclerc misses race
[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race
[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points
[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)
[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell
[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)
[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated
[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3
[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium
[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race
[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race
[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AZE] One Aston Martin finishes the race (lapped ok)
[AZE] Lewis Hamilton finishes ahead of Charles Leclerc (race)
[AZE] Kimi Antonelli scores more points than George Russel
[AZE] An Audi reaches Q3
[AZE] A Ferrari on the podium
[AZE] Antonelli on the podium
[BHR] At least 5 cars DNS/DNF
[BHR] Mercedes double podium
[BHR] Three WDC winners on podium
[BHR] One team qualifies P1 and P2
[BHR] RBR double podium
[BHR] At least one car retires due to a collision with another car
[SIN] RBR double podium in main race
[SIN] Antonelli wins main race
[SIN] Aston scores at least one point over the weekend
[SIN] 5+ DNF in feature race
[SIN] Red Flag in the main qualifying
[SIN] Impeding penalty during the main qualifying
[SIN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[SIN] Russel finishes the main race in top 6
[SIN] Both Racing Bulls score points in the main race
[SIN] Bearman scores points in the main race
[SIN] Sainz scores points in the main race
[SIN] Intermediate or wet tyres used in the main race
[COTA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[COTA] Red flag during qualifying
[COTA] Antonelli secures WDC
[COTA] A McLaren driver on the podium
[COTA] Max Verstappen wins the race
[COTA] A Ferrari qualifies P1 or P2
[COTA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[COTA] A Haas reaches Q3
[COTA] Race winner has 2 or more tire changes
[COTA] Haas score at least 1 point
[COTA] An Audi finishes the race in top 10
[COTA] Hadjar on the podium
[COTA] Both Racing Bulls score points
[COTA] 4 or more DNF
[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MEX] Both Ferraris on the podium
[MEX] Piastri finishes outside the top 10
[MEX] An Audi scores points
[MEX] Russel finishes ahead of Antonelli
100
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55
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45
23
10
0
0
0
0
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0
OptionProbability
Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates
Other
No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)
Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights
Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights
88
6
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉🥉
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Coyote - Canis latrans
[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉🥉
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
[⚔️Frontrunner] Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]
❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]
❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]
❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
12
11
11
11
11
9
8
8
8
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Stays Independent / Refuses Buyout
Rockstar Games
NVIDIA
Blizzard Entertainment
OpenAI
CD Projekt Red
96
2
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Significant Rogue AI Incident
Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections
Democrats win Iowa governorship
Republicans lose the house majority in midterms
James Talarico wins Texas senate election
Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election
@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Democracy survives
Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently
Mass Deportations
Trump is impeached
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Democrats win back the white house in 2028
Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister
Left-wing CPAC alternative launches
RFK Jr impeached
Suffer a fall in public
Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life
Chuck Grassley dies
Peter Hotez goes to prison
Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist
@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve
Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist
Drone strike in Mexico by US
Nuclear weapon detonation
AGI achieved
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
US punitive expedition in Mexico
A second pope is elected
Republicans win the white house in 2028
Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law
Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms
100k humanoid robots manufactured
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist
Reiner Fuellmich released from prison
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
Another covid-like pandemic
NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently
Bell tower added at the US Capitol
Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister
Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality
Science and public health infrastructures dies
All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely
Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently
Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election
Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor
Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently
MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses
A human walks on the Moon
Joe Exotic is released from prison
Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs
Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Antifa dissolves
Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished
AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor
Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election
Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished
NASA abolished
US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide
Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority
Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Adam Schiff goes to prison
Chris Whitty goes to prison
European countries all under far-right regime control
Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president
Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist
Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison
Actblue shut down and cease to exist
All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently
World war 3 and global war launch
Metaculus shut down and cease to exist
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
China invades Taiwan
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist
Latin American countries all under far-right regime control
Ilhan Omar deported
Soros family goes to prison
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Coup attempt in the United States
All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s
Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms
Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister
Hillary Clinton goes to prison
All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist
Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
Republicans win control of the house
All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Fauci goes to prison
Manifold market shut down and cease to exist
US withdraws from United Nations
Viktor Orban returns as prime minister
GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments
Russia invades all European countries
Barack Obama goes to prison
Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister
Abolish global health funding and infrastructures
Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently
Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide
Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets
Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
Democracy dies
All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down
World Health Organization dissolved and abolished
Far-right seizes all American institutions
All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE
Nuclear war
Reform UK wins UK 2029 election
World becomes global far-right regime
Russia invades all NATO countries
Bill Gates goes to prison
All media under right-wing control
North Korea bombs and invades South Korea
Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections
US captures Lula and removes him from office
Supreme Court packing
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Donald Trump reelected President
United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship
All federal and state judges impeached
All Democrats imprisoned
Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland
Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister
Human extinction
US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state
Democrats permanently locked out of power
Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election
All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison
Eagles three-peat
2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor
Abolish elections permanently
Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally
All Trump opponents go to prison
Canada becomes 51st state
Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland
Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms
Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
98
96
95
94
91
73
73
71
63
60
58
50
46
44
44
42
35
34
30
29
28
27
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
18
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12
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9
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8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Crimson Desert
Red Dead Redemption 2
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Grand Theft Auto IV
Grand Theft Auto VI
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's The Division
100
95
78
69
66
52
49
44
36
32
31
21
17
8
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
19
16
10
6
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)
🇳🇱 Max Verstappen (Oracle Red Bull Racing)
🇬🇧 Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)
🇬🇧 George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)
🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)
🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)
🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri (McLaren Mastercard)
Other
48
17
17
5
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1057
822
OptionProbability
Hades 2
Red Dead Redemption 3
Monster Hunter WIlds
Haunted Chocolatier
Far Cry 7
Fable
Elder Scrolls 6
Grand Theft Auto 6
Kingdom Hearts 4
S&box
Slitterhead
The Last of Us 3
Persona 6
2XKO
Silksong
Skate 4
Rivals of Aether 2
Splatoon 4
Frostpunk 2
Hearts of Iron 5
Civilization 7
ARMA 4
Death Stranding 2
Black Myth: Wukong
Killing Floor 3
92
89
88
87
84
78
72
60
59
52
50
50
34
29
27
27
24
21
18
16
15
10
0
0
0
OptionProbability
brown
orange
purple
green
blue
red
yellow
17
17
17
17
17
8
6
OptionProbability
0
1
2
3
4
5
17
17
17
17
17
17
