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OptionProbability
Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours
Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days
Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days
Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck
The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days
>= 10 American soldiers are killed
>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed
A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days
Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days
Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days
Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel
Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incident
>= 50 American soldiers are killed
Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader
Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists
A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
>= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
100+ civilian deaths in Israel
Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours
Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days
Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
21
17
15
14
14
13
12
12
9
8
8
8
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10297
9276
OptionProbability
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
[⚔️Frontrunner] Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
[⚔️Underdog] Cat - Felis catus 🥉
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates
Other
Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights
No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)
Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights
91
4
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Stays Independent / Refuses Buyout
NVIDIA
Rockstar Games
Blizzard Entertainment
OpenAI
CD Projekt Red
96
2
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Red
Blue
100
0
OptionProbability
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Red Dead Redemption 2
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Crimson Desert
Grand Theft Auto VI
Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Tom Clancy's The Division
Grand Theft Auto V
100
84
79
73
70
69
62
58
50
37
35
32
23
22
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
18
17
11
7
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6378
3288
OptionProbability
R+L=J
Shireen burnination
Nightlamp
King Bran
Lemongate
The Pink Letter not by Ramsey
Mad Queen Dany
Aegon is a Blackfyre
Jojen-paste
Somebody is Euron
Dany will burn the house with the Red Door
Time-traveling Bran
Arya kills Lady Stoneheart
Marwyn is Maegor Brightflame
Gerion Lannister is the Shrouded Lord
Bolt-On
Time-traveling fetus
99
88
88
86
70
66
60
52
41
34
31
31
31
26
26
18
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1057
822
OptionProbability
Red
Gold
Blue
63
20
17