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OptionProbability
McLaren
Red Bull Racing
Alpine
Aston Martin
Ferrari
Haas
Sauber
Mercedes
Visa Cash App Racing Bulls
Williams
99
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-02-01: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs MONTEREY BAY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-23: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-02: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-29: LOS ANGELES GALAXY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-08: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC (US Open Cup)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (US Open Cup)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-24: HOUSTON DYNAMO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-31: AUSTIN vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-13: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-28: SAN DIEGO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-06: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-05: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-01-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-05: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08: NEW YORK RED BULLS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-12: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHICAGO FIRE (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-09: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-16: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-22: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHARLOTTE (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-30: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-17: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-14: PORTLAND TIMBERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-29: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES GALAXY (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs NEW YORK RED BULLS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-13: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-20: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-27: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SAN DIEGO (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
14683
5499
OptionProbability
Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates
Other
No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)
Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights
Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights
30
24
22
17
7
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
20
18
12
6
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
George Russel (Mercedes)
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Jack Doohan (Alpine)
Alexander Albon (Williams)
Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)
Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (VCARB)
Isack Hadjar (VCARB)
Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)
Esteban Ocon (Haas)
Ollie Bearman (Haas)
34
30
30
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Red Dead Redemption 2
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Crimson Desert
Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Grand Theft Auto VI
Grand Theft Auto V
Tom Clancy's The Division
93
71
70
69
69
65
64
48
48
43
26
25
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6378
3288
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1048
954
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1057
822
OptionProbability
Milwaukee Brewers (+159 as of 8/14/2025)
Chicago Cubs (+115 as of 8/14/2025)
Other
Los Angeles Dodgers (+80 as of 8/14/2025)
Boston Red Sox (+93 as of 8/14/2025)
New York Yankees (+90 as of 8/14/2025)
Detroit Tigers (+77 as of 8/14/2025)
New York Mets (+32 as of 8/14/2025)
San Diego Padres (+52 as of 8/14/2025)
Two or more teams tie
55
9
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
112
89
