OptionProbability
Resided in the same state as the incident
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
Did it on purpose
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
Born in the United States
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Native English speaker (L1)
Is a registered voter
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
n/a
US citizen
White
used a bolt action rifle
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
Male
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
20-27 years old
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Skinny
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
ectomorph body type
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
Will plead guilty
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Furry
Gamer
Is named Tyler Robinson
Hunter
iphone user
Motivated primarily by political ideology
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
disliked Charlie Kirk
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
Unemployed
Is left wing
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
has a furaffinity account
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
Strongly opposes zionism
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
Is sentenced to death
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
Will kill again (including suicide)
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
Not a virgin
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
N/A (oops)
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Dies in prison
has used the word yiff in written communication
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Has ADHD
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
6 ft tall
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
has vore kink
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Owned the firearm used
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
Fan fiction author
White cis-hetero Christian man
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
student at any university
was prescribed psychiatric medication
Owns a fursuit
Participates in this market
Transgender
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
psychedelics user
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Has a Bluesky account
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
Current or previous student at University of Utah
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
Was on an FBI watchlist
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
has significant student load debt
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
Had diagnosed mental illness
Is right wing
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Femboy
History of illegal drug addiction
White Nationalist
Left-handed
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
History of domestic violence
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Ex law enforcement
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
Had felony conviction previously
Incel
groyper
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
is Mossad
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Escapes carceral detention
Was a student at UVU
Involved in Effective Altruism
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Has a parent who drives for Uber
Parent
decel
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Fled the country after the shooting
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
Indian national
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Teenager
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
50 years or older
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Is or was a computer science student
Married
Manifold assists with his capture
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
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OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Snape is black
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
It's woke
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Dobby makes an appearance
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
At least one of the actors is transgender
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
Features an explicitly transgender character
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Premieres in 2027
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Zendaya is cast in the show
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OptionProbability
Gunplay
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A hamburger appears on screen
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Pirates
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
19
16
10
6
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Joey Graziadei
Sutton Stracke
Cris Judd
Parvati Shallow
Anna Gasteyer
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Tom Sandoval
Suze Orman
Paris Hilton
Ronan Farrow
Jinx Monsoon
Walton Goggins
Luann de Lesseps
Zach King
Cole Escola
Luke Wilson
Marc Maron
Adam DeVine
Drew Barrymore
Jools Lebron
Elle King
Lynne Spears
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Michael Rapaport
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Adam Lambert
Mira Sorvino
Danielle Brooks
Meg Tilly
Jason Bateman
Julie Chrisley
Daniel Stern
Drake Bell
Dixie D'Amelio
Jeanette McCurdy
Andrea Martin
Billy Bob Thornton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Noah Cyrus
Raven Simone
Jean Smart
Kelly Ripa
Noah Schnapp
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Jussie Smollett
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Savannah Chrisley
Mia Farrow
Owen Wilson
Victoria Beckham
Nancy Mace
---
Lil Nas X
James Carville
Prince Harry
Sharon Stone
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Linda Evangelista
Richard Gere
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Jon Lovett
Ann Coulter
Eric Trump
Meghan Markle
Charlie Sheen
Monica Lewinsky
Pitbull
Hasan Piker
Soon-Yi Previn
Donna Brazile
Elon Musk
Bette Midler
David Beckham
Steve Carell
Woody Harrelson
Harry Sisson
Lady Gaga
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Tiffany Trump
RuPaul
James Woods
Ted Cruz
Ivanka Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Katy Perry
Anthony Weiner
Kanye West
Hillary Clinton
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Roger Stone
Roseanne Barr
Ariana Grande
Prince William
Woody Allen
George Santos
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kevin Spacey
JD Vance
Catherine O'Hara
Dolly Parton
100
50
50
50
50
41
38
37
37
37
36
36
36
34
34
34
34
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32
31
31
31
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25
25
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25
24
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24
22
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20
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20
20
20
20
20
20
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20
19
18
18
18
18
18
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18
17
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15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
6
5
5
4
1
0
OptionProbability
The season takes place in Europe
We will see any character from S3 in S4 of White Lotus
Any character from S1-3 is shown on screen
At least one named character dies
A named character goes swimming
Any named character takes drugs
Someone commits adultery
We see more than two people die over the course of the season
Full frontal male nudity
Named character gets on a boat
There is an interracial physical relationship (kiss/sex/marriage?)
Group sex with >2 named characters
A hotel employee dies
Greg / Gary appears on screen in non-flashback/photo/[similar]
Lesbian scene (romantic kissing or more)
A gun gets shot
Two named characters talk inside an airport terminal
First S04 episode airs in 2027
At least one death occurs by accident
Belinda returns on the show
At least two named characters from previous seasons appear
A medical doctor is shown on screen
Someone insists they've witnessed a supernatural or divine event
A security guard or a bodyguard is a named character
There is a mention about how guests keep dying at white lotus resorts
Hotel manager is gay or bi
At least one character is non-binary gendered
Oscar winner part of the acting cast
Someone gets fired or quits dramatically
No rich person (over $10M net worth) acts like a douche
9 episodes long (+1 from last, like each previous season)
Zion returns to the show
A named character is terminally ill
Alluding to, mentioning, or performing (on or off screen) bestiality
No heterosexual character is murdered
At least one named character is a sex worker
There are at least three named characters under the age of 18
Tanya gets mentioned
A named character goes hiking
Nobody dead from gun
Someone is arrested
There will be a funeral shown on screen
We will see Frank (S3) in S4 of White Lotus
A camel is shown on screen
A named character is shown to be vegan
Kidnapping/Abudction
Someone gets tied up or gagged (non-consensually)
We see more than five people die over the course of the season
A named character goes scuba diving
Snow is shown on screen
Someone drowns
Somebody speaks Spanish (≥5 consecutive words)
The hotel only serves vegan food
Incest
The season takes place mainly in Asia
The season takes place in South America
The season takes place in Africa
99
94
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92
88
76
66
66
64
59
57
56
55
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53
51
50
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49
49
45
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43
41
39
37
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32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
28
26
24
24
24
24
20
20
17
15
12
11
10
8
6
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Fusion
AGI
Laser Propulsion
Mind uploading
Cryogenics
Space guns
ASI
Antimatter propulsion
Warp Drive
Dyson Sphere
Space Elevators (+ req material tech)
Teleportation (Local)
Jump Drive (distant teleportation/ displacement)
Ansible (faster than light communication)
90
90
85
83
82
80
79
74
72
46
37
25
19
17
OptionProbability
a scene with conspicuous focus on feet
scene with someone smoking
someone is shot with a gun
scenes from another era/decade/time period
At least 1 use of the n-word
Quentin Tarantino has a role
at least 5 pairs of bare feet
at least 2.5 hours long
Hard drugs such as cocaine or heroin are featured (shown on camera, and/or explicitly done by a character)
characters that are two or more generations of a family (grandparents, parents, children) - including flashbacks
someone is killed with an improvised weapon
It will not be his 10th film.
at least 5 uses of the n-word
scene with nudity (full buttocks, genitals, breasts)
Soup is clearly visible on the screen at any moment
based or inspired by a true story
Monologue about the good ol’ days
at least three of the actors: Brad Pitt, Zoe Bell, Samuel L Jackson, Michael Madsen, Tim Roth, Uma Thurman
released before 2027
scenes from somewhere outside of the US
scenes on a boat
in production before 2026
contains a scene that breaks the fourth wall
Is a sequel to another preexisting film
Is a prequel to another preexisting film
at least 3 hours long
Kill Bill Vol. 2 counts retroactively / Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was final
It's the movie described in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4geaxYRgx2c
98
97
96
88
81
79
73
72
68
67
66
48
47
45
43
41
40
39
34
32
31
31
29
27
18
15
4
2
OptionProbability
Abed will say "cool…cool cool cool"
Jeff will give an inspirational speech
🎵 Troy and Abed (something something) 🎵 (eg. in the morning)
Inspector Spacetime will be referenced
Starburns will feature
Professor Duncan will feature
Britta will be called "the worst"
Garrett will feature
"Britta" will be used as a verb
"Six seasons and a movie" will be mentioned
Magnitude will feature
(Fat) Neil will feature
Frankie will feature
Troy's AC/Plumbing story will be referenced
Hickey will feature
Someone will shoot a paintball gun
Elroy will feature
Dungeons and Dragons will be played
There will be a pillow/blanket fort
Abed will wear a cape
Annie's Boobs (the monkey) will feature
Pierce will feature
It will be released in 2024
93
91
81
79
71
70
65
62
62
61
59
56
52
50
48
44
39
37
36
34
23
17
0
OptionProbability
Player equipped shield
Another ship/barge monument
A Tier 2 Raiding Item
Tutorial Island
Bike/Motorcycle/Similar
Rust Mobile
Another rideable animal
Usable Jet Ski / Wave Runner
Taser / stun gun / stun baton
skins for cars / boats / other vehicles
Pet system
100
100
100
100
100
100
31
29
29
24
12
OptionProbability
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >90% two weeks after release
Scored by Ludwig Goransson
Shot entirely on IMAX cameras
July release date (for the US)
Reported budget (on Wikipedia) >$200 million
Rated R
Nominated for Best Picture (Oscars)
Longer than 2h50m runtime
Worldwide gross >$1 billion
Matt Damon is in the cast
Original story
A gun is shown on screen
Cillian Murphy is in the cast
Released in 2029
Passes the Bechdel Test
Tom Holland is in the cast
A smartphone is shown on screen
Worldwide gross >$1.5 billion
Wins Best Picture (Oscars)
Scored by Hans Zimmer
74
74
69
69
59
59
57
50
50
50
50
48
47
45
41
34
31
28
22
17
OptionProbability
Five Nights At Freddy's 3
Mamma Mia! 3
Top Gun 3
Zootopia 3
Other
56
17
14
7
7
