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Prediction markets for Poker

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

91586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

916

🃏Which players will win the World Series of Poker Main event at least once before the end of 2040? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 30, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61440

OptionProbability

Daniel Negreanu

Niklas Astedt

Linus Loeliger

Isaac Haxton

Rainer Kempe

Ben Yu

Sean Winter

Phil Ivey

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?

Mar 8, 2:14 AMMar 14, 7:59 AM

6.69%chance

11707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

120

Will there be a RPS Poker / Cool Poker event in the World Series of Poker before the end of 2030?

Jun 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.72%chance

3480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

1029

Will Manifold poker nights attendance exceed Manifold daily active users?

Apr 13, 2:06 AMApr 20, 3:59 AM

31.36%chance

9480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

157

Will Daniel Negreanu win the World Series of Poker main event before the end of 2034?

Apr 30, 3:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.4%chance

5404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

542

41

Will a woman make the final table at the 2026 World Series of Poker main event?

Jun 3, 2:42 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

6296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Will Nik Airball become personan non grata in the Poker community before 2026

Apr 19, 10:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.35%chance

8220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

84

Which state will be the next to legalize and regulate online poker?

May 11, 2:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11215

OptionProbability

Other

Colorado

California

Kentucky

New York

Arkansas

60

20

9

5

3

1

When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?

Apr 8, 7:21 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

564

OptionProbability

Other

Never

June 2025

86

14

0

Will "Poker is a bad game for teaching epistemics. ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 10, 10:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

874

Will me and poker opp play poker at mop 2026

Sep 15, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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